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21/07/2008 I got an iPhoneIf you've heard me make comments about Apple, you might have thought I would be one of the last people in the world to get an iPhone. I might have thought so too. Ever since I had a few bad experiences with Macs back in college (late 90's), I have pretty much avoided and looked down on anything with the Apple logo. In the last couple years those annoying, misleading, and downright false Mac-vs-PC advertisements have only reinforced that tendency. On top of that, I can't stand the zealotry that Apple seems to inspire in many of ill-informed its users. And that branding strategy of putting a lowercase-i in front of any common word to make it their own? iHateIt. But aside from their marketing I do have to admit that Apple has come a long way in the last 10 years. They have a real OS that runs on mostly-standard hardware components, their hardware engineering is very impressive, and they seem to be very in touch with what is important to mainstream consumers. So given all this I finally had to ask myself... Was I as big of an anti-Apple zealot as the pro-Apple flock I looked down on? Certainly not. :) But... was I being unfairly close-minded toward Apple? Probably. When the original iPhone came out last year, I was aware of the hype but I mostly ignored it for its Appleness. Anyway that wasn't hard to do because while it looked slick, it had far less functionality than the phone I already carried. But the new "iPhone 3G" changed that in a few important ways: (1) I can sync my work (Exchange) email and calendar over the air. (2) 3G data speeds for fast web browsing. (3) The platform is opened up to 3rd-party developers to write new applications. My overall impression after using it for 3 days is that it's clearly a leap beyond anything else currently available. You can be sure that competitors will be playing catch-up for the next couple years -- initially with some thin shells on top of the same old thing, but eventually with some real advances. Isn't competition great? You can read plenty of people's impressions on the web so I won't repeat everything, but I'll point out a few things that especially disappointed or impressed me. For comparison I've been using Windows Mobile phones for the last 3+ years. Bad:
Good:
Support for 3rd-party apps means there is still a lot more in store for the iPhone. The SDK has only been available to developers for a few months and already there are some pretty cool applications. The user base of 3 million+ iPhones (and iPod Touches), combined with the store integrated into the phone in a way that makes impulse purchases VERY easy, will ensure that many developers will want to target the platform. The one app I'm most looking forward to is a good e-book reader. Fortunately Mobipocket says they're already working on it. Also, I'd really like some kind of family-planning/calendaring solution. My girlfriend and I are both planners (her more than I) and we currently use calendar.live.com which has some really nice sharing features, but it isn't accessible from a phone. A rich integrated multi-calendar implementation from Apple would be ideal, but a 3rd-party app could get most of the way there. At that point I think I'd have to get her an iPhone too. 20/09/2007 Contactless payment securityIn yesterday's blog entry, I wrote about contactless payments. I promised to follow it up by addressing security and privacy concerns you might have about the system. I'll start with security. There are basically two results a malicious attacker might want to achieve by exploiting the contactless nature of this kind of payment system:
Unfortunately for the would-be criminal, and fortunately for you, the first attack is ineffective, and the second attack is impossible! Why? It might not be what you're thinking. We should ignore the helpful restriction that the super-low-power communication requires the RFID chip to be within a couple centimeters of the reader, so it would be difficult for someone to activate it without you noticing -- maybe you're on a Tokyo subway car at rush hour and it's perfectly expected to have strange people and things pressed up against you on all sides. Also, let's even put aside the fact that all the RF communications are strongly encrypted -- maybe the attacker has a device that can trick the payment token into thinking it's a valid merchant, allowing it to participate in the encryption. Credit card companies provide two very simple mitigations for attack #1 above. First, any reputable card-issuer does not hold consumers liable for fraudulent charges (often this is enforced by law). And second, any merchant with many reports of fraudulent charges is very quickly going to have their credit card acceptance privileges revoked, probably before they even receive the funds. Although this does not absolutely prevent a very determined troublemaker from briefly hassling somebody, there will probably be plenty of information for the police to easily track down and arrest that troublemaker. So in practice, this is never a problem as far as I've heard. (Things get more difficult for a consumer who intentionally makes a purchase from a merchant who then doesn't deliver on the promised goods/services -- but that is a different kind of attack, and not really credit card fraud because the account-holder approved the transaction at the time it was charged.) As for attack #2, it is foiled by a design that ensures the RF communications never even include an account number, nor any number that is ever usable outside the current transaction. The full explanation requires an understanding of public key cryptography, but conceptually you can imagine the tiny computer chip in the payment token is generating and transmitting a single-use credit card number for each transaction. Credit card companies have issued single-use credit card numbers upon request for about a decade, primarily for users who are concerned (paranoid?) about making purchases online. Only the credit card company can link a single-use number back to the real account number that it was generated for. Contactless transactions are actually a bit more complex, but this should give you an idea of how the payments can be made without ever exposing your account information. So even if an attacker is able to eavesdrop on the transaction data, they won't see any useful information. Most credit card fraud today occurs when a (soon-to-be) criminal somehow obtains your credit card or credit card information (name, number, exp date), then goes on a shopping spree. This can easily happen when a waiter takes your card away out of your sight, when a cashier "forgets" to hand the card back to you after swiping it, or maybe even if the person behind you in line at the checkout manages to snap a photo of your card. But contactless payment systems are not vulnerable to this form of fraud at all! Because you don't ever have to give up possession of the payment token, and it's not readable by a human, in this way you can consider contactless payments more secure than an ordinary credit card. Of course, if you manage to lose your payment token, it is possible for the finder to go on a shopping spree just like with a normal plastic card. So you still need to report it to your bank so they can block it. If I sound like I know what I'm talking about here, it's probably because I do similar (but much more formal) security analyses for software all the time, after having had lots of training for that task. Now, I must admit I'm far from an expert on RFID payment systems, but at least I can still manage to sound like I know what I'm talking about. Coming soon, I'll take a look at the privacy issues. 19/09/2007 My phone is also a credit cardWhy must I carry a wallet? Paper money is a cumbersome. Physical identification is easily forged. Supermarket club cards are the most annoying thing -- if they must track my shopping habits, can't they recognize me by the credit card I use? And then there's the unnecessary key ring with metal keys?? Those archaic mechanical locks are so weak they're just begging for a more secure, convenient, and modern alternative. There is only one thing that I can accept that is worth carrying with me everywhere: a smart compact digital device that identifies me and connects me to the rest of the world. It is my mobile phone, and it should be so much more. (Until I upgrade my neural implant to support wireless networking.) At the very least, I should be able to buy things with my phone instead of a credit card. People in Europe and Asia have been swiping their phone at the retail counter for years, so why are we so far behind here in the USA? Well, contactless (RFID) payment systems are finally being rolled out here by Visa, MasterCard, and AmEx, though they're slow to catch on due to a chicken-and-egg problem: hardly any consumers carry contactless payment devices because very few merchants can accept them, while merchants aren't interested in setting up the contactless readers when nobody will use them. We need more cool applications like the NYC subway trial to get contactless payments into the mainstream. Several American credit card issuers will now give out contactless payment devices on request. Some provide an otherwise normal credit card with an integrated RFID chip, while others issue a separate token of some kind. My primary credit card is a Citi MasterCard, and for it I was able to request a "PayPass" device.
Citi sent me a big blue plastic fob meant to go on a key ring. I hate having a big jangly key ring, but that's okay because I never intended to keep the fob there. Instead I very carefully destroyed it. The plastic case of the fob was pretty thick and strongly welded together, but some tough Cutco utility scissors made short work of it. The functional part is actually just a small sliver.
The actual RFID chip isn't visible in this photo, but it's only about 5mm square and 1mm thick. Most of the blue area is a thinner plastic piece that just holds the surrounding RF antenna wires. Now, I could just stick this sliver in my wallet, so that I can swipe my wallet in front of a contactless reader to make a payment. But as I explained above, my phone is really the proper place for it. Besides, my phone is more easily accessible than my wallet. And there's a good chance I already had it in my hand because I was checking email while waiting in line at the checkout counter!
I was just barely able to fit the RFID sliver underneath the battery cover on the back of my T-Mobile Dash. Now I can swipe my phone in front of a MasterCard PayPass reader to pay for things! I wonder how many funny looks I'll get from cashiers... If only the places I shop had PayPass readers. Around here only a few chain stores have them, most prominently Tully's, McDonald's, and 7-11. I don't drink coffee or eat fast food burgers, nor am I a fan of slurpees or any other junk food at 7-11. Maybe if 7-11 sold something really cool, I might stop in... Oh. Awesome. Anyway, I'm sure there will be more PayPass locations soon enough. How about some gas stations? They pioneered contactless payments in the U.S., but now that regular credit cards are doing it I'd rather not have to maintain a separate account. Now, some paranoid readers may be eager to bring up concerns about the security and privacy of electronic contactless payments, compared to regular magnetic-swipe cards or paper money. In a future blog entry, I'll explain why security is basically not a problem for consumers today, while privacy/anonymity is a problem that could easily be solved if only the industry was motivated. 21/03/2007 Karaoke PartyThis past Sunday evening we had a karaoke party in my basement -- probably the biggest and most successful one so far. I hope everyone who came had a great time, I know I did! And to those who didn't make it, you missed out! I guess I should say Julie had a party in my basement, since she did most of the organizing; I was just the host. Anyway, this party was in honor our friend Ben, who is leaving Seattle for a job in So-Cal. We'll miss you Ben! To anyone who wasn't there who may be wondering... I don't hesitate to sing badly in front of a small crowd. Actually, after listening to lots of country music in Oklahoma in the 90's, I can pretty well nail anything by Garth Brooks. And I can do okay at some more modern pop hits as well. But for next time I'll have to remember that the average male pop singer has a range much higher than mine -- which can be a problem as the night goes on, my voice tires, and my vocal range shrinks. I had to drop an octave for the last verse on one of those songs near the end... Now, just in case you thought I was being almost hip and anti-geek by hosting a social party, I have to tell you all about the software I wrote for it. It was really quite simple and mostly just took me one evening to put together, but I think it's actually the most useful software I've ever written for personal/home use. (And I have had numerous hobby programming projects over the years...) First, some background. Karaoke at my place is done on the home theater PC hooked up to the projector in my basement. Saeed and I (mostly Saeed) have purchased a bunch of karaoke CD+G discs and ripped them all onto files on the PC. We've built up a pretty good library of over 900 songs so far, spanning a wide variety of popular material. So then we plug a good microphone into the computer and find some software that can play ripped CD+G's, and we have ourselves a party! We can add songs to a playlist and sing along while the words are displayed on the giant screen (or a small cloned display I setup facing the other way for the singer on the "stage"). The problem with that basic setup is everything is being managed on the one PC. It makes it difficult for people to browse through the song library while someone is using the screen to sing from at the same time. For past parties we had a clunky system arranged where a Windows Explorer window was on one side of the screen, and people could scroll through the files and right-click to get an option to add to the queue. But there was no convenient searching, no sorting by title, you had to be close enough to the screen to read the small text, and the right-click interface was ugly and nonintuitive. I think it was definitely less convenient than the traditional karaoke-machine method of looking through one of multiple books (each sorted by title or artist) and then punching a code into a remote control. Clearly, it's just a software problem. And luckily I write software for a living, and still more software for fun! My solution is a three-tiered application for remotely browsing and enqueueing songs, all written in C# in Visual Studio. (BTW I currently work in the Visual Studio division, so that great product has some of my code!) On the player PC is a small controller application which reads the song library from the disk, and takes enqueue requests from the server and passes the songs to the KaraFun playlist. On my home server is an XML web service that exposes web methods for retrieving the library and enqueueing songs; each method call is simply relayed to the controller app on the PC. The client side of the application runs on any computer with internet connectivity, invoking the methods on my web server. It downloads the song library and displays it as a simple list that is sortable by title or artist and searchable by any keywords. Double-clicking on a song sends the enqueue request over the network. Now, we can place a couple laptop computers around the room where party-goers can easily browse and search the library and enqueue songs, via a wireless internet connection (my WiFi or my roommate's WiFi or my neighbor's WiFi...) The song library search feature is pretty slick: it's a word-wheel type multiple-partial-word match that instantly filters the library as you type. I always wanted to try implementing that kind of search, which can be seen in some recent software like Windows Vista and Media Player 11. It really wasn't hard at all, so I'm surprised more apps don't offer it -- it's such a nice way to search. But wait, it gets better: I can enqueue songs with my phone! The client software can also run on an internet-connected Windows Mobile Pocket PC or Smartphone (like my Dash) because it targets the .NET Compact Framework. However at the party I didn't promote this usage because the laptops were faster for browsing. The Smartphone app mostly functions well using the exact same code, but I'll have to complain to someone about the performance of the ListView control provided by NetCF: with 900+ items it is horribly slow, taking over a second just to move the selection down to the next item. Searching is still fast though, because that's my code and I optimized it. :) My karaoke remote-control software is named Karemotey. Due to the specialized nature of my setup, I doubt this software would be useful for many other people out there. But hey, if you're a random person who stumbled across this page because you have the exact same problem, do let me know and I might be persuaded to share. I have ambitions about adding full playlist-management and other features to the software, but I don't know if I'll ever get around to it, since what we have now works very well as it is. I think it's now better than the traditional karaoke code-book experience. 16/02/2007 You're living in the future!Or at least you are, relative to when you first read that headline. And here in the future, it has been a rather eventful week for computing technology, if you believe the recent headlines.
21/07/2006 My next carFinally it looks like someone is making a decent fully-electric production car. Not a wimpy econobox with pathetic range and acceleration, but a desirable sports car that will demonstrate that there are actually advantages to ditching internal combustion even aside from environmental factors. Below is an exceprt, but you can read the full article over at wired.com.
The Tesla Roadster is powered by 6,831 rechargeable lithium-ion batteries -- the same cells that run a laptop computer. Range: 250 miles. Fuel efficiency: 1 to 2 cents per mile. 0 to 60 in about 4 seconds. Top speed: more than 130 mph. The first cars will be built at a factory in England and are slated to hit the market next summer. The biggest drawback seems to be that in between that 250 mile range, you have to allow for a 3 1/2 hour recharge time -- so this model isn't so well-suited for road-trips. But you can bet that battery technology will continue to improve.
OK, so this can't really be my next car until the price drops some -- $85K is definitely more than I would spend on a car. But if it's successful, then others will follow, and there will be lots more options on the market. 17/02/2006 Real 3D images projected into mid-airScientists in Japan have produced 3D images suspended in air, using focused infrared lasers to stimulate point plasma emissions. 16/01/2006 "Networks are dangerous", security expert saysI noticed a story on c|net today about a new "vulnerability" discovered in Windows XP: it automatically connects to a WiFi network when it is configured to do so. While that's scary enough, I've recently been made aware there is another similar but far more dangerous vulnerability looming out there. It affects not only Windows computers but even those of the Mac and Linux persuasion as well. Millions of innocent users may be at risk without even realizing it.
In an effort to better assess the magnitude of this new heretofore unknown threat, I sat down for an interview with Wanna B. Hacker, a distinguished researcher for ScareU Computer Security, Inc.
Wanna went on ranting something about walls of fire and fishing with worms and other random nonsense, but I didn't catch it all because I decided to just back away quietly. He was obviously suffering from paranoid delusions of I-know-whats-good-for-you. This Internet is a pretty cool place as far as I can see. 15/01/2006 Electronic readingRecently I've been reading the Song of Ice and Fire series by George R. R. Martin, some excellent epic fantasy. They are a set of thousandish-page tomes, four so far, yet I carry the entire series with me wherever I go -- digitally of course. I do so enjoy the experience of reading books electronically now, but I am continually frustrated at how slowly the medium is taking off. Undoubtedly people at some time in the future will think of paper books as archaic. (Star Trek has shown me, so it must be true!) I can see that time in the distance, and it is moving closer -- just more slowly than I would like.
E-books in the bubble
Around the year 2000, a few companies started releasing some dedicated e-book reader devices, for example the Franklin eBookman and two devices from Gemstar. Microsoft, Adobe, and others also released PC & handheld e-book reader software to great fanfare. Probably they were all caught up in the hype of the dot-com bubble and the irrational worship of the E-hyphen, but some people then were expecting e-book sales and market share to skyrocket:
Well... they were only off by about two decimal places. While e-book sales are continuing to increase, they are growing at a much more modest rate. This is the most recent official data I could find -- there haven't been any big press releases lately because there's been nothing exciting to talk about.
E-book devices today
There are two problems that have been holding back e-book sales as far as I can see, and the first is the device hardware. To almost everyone's great lack of surprise, the dedicated reader devices so far have failed, or remained very much a niche product. For some reason, nobody wants to pay several hundred dollars for a clunky book-sized device with a gray pixilated screen that eats batteries and can do little more than read books from a very limited library.
Believe it or not, the hardware problem is already solved, or at least well on its way to being solved in my opinion. As I said above I have a great experience reading e-books today, and that is on my Pocket PC. Now you might be thinking of some reason why reading e-books on a Pocket PC is ridiculous and there's no way millions of people will switch from reading paper bound books to reading books on their Pocket PC... Were you thinking of one of the exclamations below? Because I have a reasonable response to all but one.
Objections to e-books
-- "Text on a pixilated screen is ugly/tiring to read!"
Most current Pocket PCs and smart phones have LCD screens that are a maximum of 240 pixels wide, which does result in visibly pixilated text and images. They have approximately the same number of pixels per inch as most computer monitors (around 96 ppi), but because a handheld device is typically held at only half the distance from your eyes (so the fonts are smaller), things don't appear as smooth.
Fortunately, devices are slowly trending toward screens that have closer to 200 ppi. Many new Pocket PCs, like the Dell Axim X51v, i-mate JASJAR, and others have gorgeous VGA (480x640) screens. They're just a little bulky now, but things are always shrinking. Text on a 200 ppi LCD screen is cleaner and crisper than any computer monitor you have seen, certainly clearer than text in a cheaply-printed mass-market paperback. When I'm at home I read on my previous PPC, a VGA Toshiba e800 instead the smaller i-mate JAM PPC phone that I carry with me everywhere.
-- "The screen is too small!"
Actually, reading a narrow column of text is well-known to be easier because the eyes don't have to scan back and forth as much. This is why newspapers have always been formatted in narrow columns. But admittedly, this does become a problem when there is any special formatting involved, and the limited area doesn't allow much space at all for graphics of any kind.
-- "I don't want my book to run out of battery power!"
Pocket PCs typically have a battery life of over eight hours while reading, since you're not consuming much processing power. Most of the battery power goes to support the screen, and of course bigger, brighter screens suck more juice. While I wouldn't count on a great leap in battery capacity in the next decade, upcoming low-power display technologies promise to do more with less (keep reading to "future" below). Meanwhile, if you're reading a book for more than eight hours in one sitting, it's probably past time for you to put down the book, move around, and get some blood flowing. Consider the battery alarm your reminder to take a break, or go to sleep as the case may be.
-- "I enjoy the experience of browsing titles on a shelf!"
I used to, before the internet. But online bookstores like Amazon.com can give you seemingly infinitely greater selection than any brick-and-mortar bookstore, along with unbiased reviews and recommendations from professionals and ordinary readers. You don't actually believe all the praise printed by the publisher on the back of their own book, do you?
-- "I need to show off how intelligent/eccentric I am by prominently displaying my book collection!"
Well if you feel the need, you can put your book list on your blog, the place where people in this decade try to show off how intelligent/eccentric they are.
-- "I take comfort in the feel/smell/personal experience of hefting and cracking open an old musty tome!"
You'll get over the loss, and your children won't miss a thing. Seriously, people probably said similar things about the transition from handwriting to typewriter/keyboard, but now nobody writes anything of length with a pen -- it's just so inconvenient.
-- "Most people don't own/can't afford Pocket PCs!"
Are you sure? Think again, because everyone I know owns a mobile phone. While they may not be actual Microsoft-branded Pocket PCs (though Windows Mobile is gaining market share recently), they are regardless becoming pocketable general-purpose computing devices. These "phones" are also getting bigger, higher resolution screens to better allow people to read email, browse the web, watch videos, and inevitably to read e-books.
-- "Most books I want to read aren't even available in electronic form!"
This is a sign of a young market, and a content industry cautiously slow to embrace the digital age. The problem will solve itself in time: as demand increases, publishers will fill that demand lest they miss out on an increasingly large portion of the market.
No doubt content will always rule over format: if there is a book I really want to read that's only for sale in the form of clay tablets, I won't mind getting my hands a little dirty. But if there's a book I'm just thinking of buying, I'm much more likely to go ahead with the purchase if there's a cheaper, more convenient, instantly-gratifying electronic version available.
-- "Buying and reading books in electronic form is inconvenient compared to just picking up and opening a real book!"
I hope you didn't say that. What's more convenient than sitting at your home computer (or in the park with a wireless-internet-enabled PPC Phone), browsing a billion titles online with detailed reviews and recommendations, and downloading and opening a book with a few clicks in a few seconds? Or how about carrying your entire library around with you everywhere, ready to open to any of your bookmarked pages whenever you have a spare moment? Even the complete Wikipedia can fit on a tiny 1GB SD card.
-- "I don't want to be forced to deal with restrictive DRM on a book that I rightfully purchased! It won't even let me lend the book to a friend!"
Err... yeah, that can be annoying...
The DRM problem
The digital rights management problem is the final barrier to widespread consumption of electronic books. Much of the publishing industry is scared to death that they will suffer from the online piracy losses the music recording industry claims, but might be exaggerating according to some analysts. Traditional books have so far been much less susceptible to the file-trading phenomenon than music, because it is much more labor-intensive and error-prone to 'rip' a book using a scanner and OCR software than it is to rip music from a CD. But if the book is already in digital form, that barrier is eliminated. And so a majority of e-books sold so far have included some form of DRM, in an attempt to prevent the purchased book from being infinitely copied and shared with the world.
In its core principle, DRM sounds perfectly reasonable: I don't have any need or perceived right to give away thousands of copies of a book I bought for myself, so I could care less if I'm prevented from doing so. But in practice, DRM is currently an inconvenience that many people find unreasonably restrictive. In order for the market for e-books to really take off, the DRM problem will need to be addressed one way or another.
Ubiquitous DRM?
The philosophy of digital content rights management is diverging into two distinct camps. On one side, the major content providers are hoping that DRM will become ubiquitous and widely accepted. This is not necessarily as scary a world as the other camp would have you believe. One reason that DRM currently can seem overly restrictive is that it must keep the content from escaping outside the sphere of rights management. But as that sphere grows bigger and rights-management enabled devices become ubiquitous, you will be able to do a lot more with the content. Or so the theory goes. Of course there will be technical and business challenges to making all those devices and managed content work together seamlessly, but it's something the industry will work out in time.
If done right, ubiquitous DRM could eventually be accepted by the masses as just the mechanism by which digital content is sold, delivered, and consumed. Even the more reluctant people will have to admit that it enables new scenarios that were just not possible or not allowed before, such as renting a movie online or borrowing a book from digital library. With DRM, content providers will have unprecedented flexibility in being able to choose what can and can't be done with content. However, they will have to be very careful to use that flexibility wisely: too much restriction could easily result in consumer backlash toward the publisher and the technology. But if 'fair use' is preserved, and consumers are allowed to do everything they can reasonably expect to do with content they purchased, then most people will be happy.
Useless DRM?
On the other side of the DRM issue, there is a significant movement claiming that DRM will never work technically or practically, so all digital content should just be unrestricted. A well-known talk given to Microsoft by Cory Doctorow presents some compelling arguments from this philosophy. The basic conclusions are that piracy will continue to be a problem and DRM will stifle innovative new technologies, unless the entire content industry fundamentally changes their business model to adapt to open unrestricted content.
It's all very convincing and seems so simple and obvious until you realize that nobody has yet proposed a reasonably realistic business model for making money off of unrestricted content. If casual piracy is big now, just think what it would be like if people could trivially share and download perfect digital media. Maybe you wouldn't download without paying, but you can't deny that an unfortunately huge number of people would. Special interest items that appeal to honest people might be reasonably okay without DRM, but anything with mass appeal would certainly suffer from unauthorized mass distribution. A common response to that reality is that the industry just needs to "adapt", and find a more creative business model to deal with the new digital world. But still nobody knows what that new model looks like, and even if they did it would take the industry decades to make such a fundamental shift.
The only large-scale commercially successful releases of unrestricted digital content that I know of have been for promotional purposes. A band might give away a free track, or an author might give away a novella or first in a series of books, each in hope that you will like them enough to then buy their physical or DRM-protected music or books. The Baen Free Library is often pointed out as one publisher's successful experiment of giving away digital copies of entire series of popular fiction novels. However, it is based on the disappearing premise that paper books provide a better reading experience than e-books: they hope people who like the e-books will buy the physical books or recommend them to their friends. If e-books actually take off and many people begin to prefer reading electronically, then Baen's experiment cannot survive.
Future of DRM
For the reasons described above, my personal prediction is that DRM is here to stay, for better or for worse. Like any new technology, you can absolutely look forward to vast usability improvements over time. Of course there will always be piracy, because as long as a human can see/hear something, it can be copied in some way. But in the music industry we are already seeing signs that if protected content is made readily available and is cheap and convenient to consume, then people will start to opt for that instead of piracy. As DRM usability improves and more legitimate digital content becomes conveniently available, this trend will continue.
Still, there will continue to be lots of free unrestricted content available, especially as more and more people go digital and anybody anywhere can cheaply and easily distribute their creations to the world. But I don't believe the mainstream content industry will ever move in the direction of some mythical business model supported by unrestricted digital content. I just don't see it happening in a capitalistic society.
Future e-book hardware
While I think Pocket PCs do now and will continue to provide a pretty good reading experience, new display technology is prompting a second coming of dedicated reading devices. Electronic paper or "e-paper" has been in development for decades but is finally reaching marketability. The key attribute that defines e-paper is that once it is drawn, the screen retains its picture without any supply of power. This makes it an ideal display technology for reading books, since the display only needs to be drawn (using a tiny burst of power) when you flip a page. Additionally, e-paper is a reflective display, just like regular paper, which is easier on the eyes than a backlit monitor.
At the CES convention earlier this month, Sony spent most of their energy hyping Blu-Ray and hoping nobody would notice they didn't have a working PS3 yet. Behind all that they made a relatively quiet announcement about the Sony Reader, a new e-book device coming to market this spring. While ordinarily I'm not the biggest fan of the company, I have to give them due credit this time for being ahead of everyone else in the e-book hardware department. The Sony Reader uses e-paper to achieve amazing clarity and battery life. The 6-inch 170 ppi reflective display looks like printed paper -- perhaps slightly plasticky paper, but just as crisp. And they claim a battery life of 7500 pages! The form factor is decent, about the size of a half-inch thin paperback book. It's not quite pocketable but that's the tradeoff for the large screen, at least until readers with rollable displays come out in another year or two.
While the Sony Reader hardware looks great, I and many other people would hesitate to buy one because of the software. You shouldn't be surprised to learn that Sony is using their own proprietary e-book file format. This means it is not compatible with the thousands of e-books already on the market in either Microsoft's or Adobe's DRM format. Sony wants this thing to be the i-pod for books, where they can control the experience (and profit) from end-to-end and put up a barrier to entry for competitors. However I don't have a lot of confidence in their ability to pull off the great software experience that made iTunes such a key factor in the iPod's success. I will reserve judgment until I learn more.
We won't have to hesitate on the Sony Reader for long: several other manufacturers are developing reader devices around e-paper. Many will fail, but a few will catch on -- the most successful ones will have the best combination of hardware, software, and available content.
Future e-book content
So, assuming the hardware problem is solved, and the DRM problem will be solved eventually, the content must follow. Publishers will slowly, very slowly, start offering more and more of their books in electronic form. If today's pricing trends continue, e-books will mostly be priced slightly less than hardback books for new releases, or slightly less than paperbacks after the titles are a few months old. But before electronic "books" really take off, and perhaps even afterward, the "killer app" for electronic reading devices is likely to be newspapers, magazines, and other periodical content, especially RSS feeds. Just think -- this insanely long blog post could have been automatically synchronized to your device, allowing you to read it while leaning back in a comfy chair instead of staring at the computer screen at your desk.
The fall of paper began when email replaced letters, and continues as e-commerce and B2B replace mail-order catalogs and office paperwork. With the coming rise of e-books, the days of paper are definitely numbered.
The views expressed here are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions or positions of my employer. While I am a software developer at Microsoft, my work is not in any way related to e-book, mobile device, or DRM technologies. All research was drawn from public sources, for my purely personal interest as a technology, digital media, and gadget enthusiast. 28/11/2005 Samsung: "the new Sony?"A few months ago I read something that passingly referred to the Samsung brand as "the new Sony." Since then as I keep up with the latest on the computer and consumer electronics industries the significance of that expression has been coming to light more and more.
There was a time not too long ago when Sony was far and away the top brand in consumer electronics. The name Sony implied a product was likely to be high-quality, well-designed, and probably a little more expensive. While the latter is still true, Sony has lost focus on most of what once made their name. Meanwhile Samsung has moved up from the ranks of a cheap no-name alternative to a prominent manufacturer of some of the most well-engineered electronics available.
Personally I generally don't maintain any particular brand loyalties or disloyalties -- I buy whatever brand best suits my needs, tastes, and budget at the time. But that has led me to avoid Sony electronics since they started putting litterally 14 different kinds of stupid Memory Stick slots in all their products. Why can't they use SD like everyone else?? Otherwise their products these days are generally not bad, but not stellar either -- meaning the price premium is never justified when there are other quality alternatives available.
Enter Samsung. As I said above, "well-engineered" is the best way I can describe their products, and that's something I appreciate very much. While they don't exactly exude style (but then not everyone can handle as much style as Apple throws at you :P), they do look slick and I have found their products to do what is expected of them extremely well without any gimmicks. For two years my home PC has been plugged into gorgeous Samsung LCD monitors. (The only thing better than N high-rez displays is N+1!) And I'm planning to upgrade my old Sony beast of a TV with what will most likely be a Samsung LCD or DLP television. Samsung also makes some very nice computers and laptops -- unfortunately they're not available in the U.S., but I saw some in Japan.
Part of the reason for Sony's loss of focus is that they're trying to be a big media company at the same time. That didn't have to be a bad thing for them: with good execution they could have totally taken advantage of it. Lucky for Apple they didn't, so now the Sony Walkman is a relic. The problem is big media companies maintain their distance of at least a decade behind modern technology, while consumer electronics companies of course cannot afford to do so. The recent stupidity of Sony records has even weakened the overall Sony brand, as the CD-spyware fiasco has led many people online to call for a boycott of all Sony products.
This article at Wharton explains some other interesting reasons behind Sony's faltering and Samsung's success. 01/11/2005 Warning: music CDs may install spyware!In the last few years, the record industry has been experimenting with various forms of copy-protection on music CDs. Their goal is to stop you from using a computer to illegally redistribute the music, and I have no problems with that goal in principle (as long as fair use is preserved). But their methods have become downright underhanded in my opinion.
The most "successful" form of music CD copy-protection these days, which is appearing on more and more (popular) albums, installs some special copy-protection software without the user's knowledge. This software installs silently, does evil, dirty, hackish things to hide itself on the system and intercept the user's actions, is usually poorly written, and is nearly impossible to uninstall. Sound familiar? I hope you have learned by now what spyware is.
If you want to read more details, check out this article from Sysinternals. (Warning: very highly technical.) Sysinternals is a respected independent Windows developer group, responsible for some great free tools that I use all the time in my job: filemon, regmon, process explorer, etc. They were caught unaware by some spyware installed by a popular album from Sony BMG, but then they dive into the Windows internals to figure out just how it works, and how, with much difficulty, it can be removed.
All of these CDs use Windows' autorun feature to activate the software as soon as you insert the CD. Unfortunately, this feature is a holdover from the days when all software, and especially CDs, were implicitly trusted. The good news is that it's very easy to disable autorun, preventing music CDs from ever installing this software on your computer. You can simply hold down the shift key while inserting an individual CD (and keep holding it for at least 10 seconds or so until the system has acknowledged the CD).
Or to permanently disable autorun of all CDs, follow the steps on this page. Afterward in order to launch a CD-ROM you will need to open My Computer, right-click the drive, and choose Autoplay.
You might also want to avoid buying any CDs labeled as "copy-protected", since for music CDs that is almost a euphemism for "spyware-infested". Or even better, buy all your music instead from an online service like MSN Music or Napster (or even iTunes if you really feel like you have to follow the cult of Mac). It's cheaper, faster, and more fun than buying an old-fashioned 3-inch disk at Wal-Mart. While these services still use a form of copy-protection, and it may be a little more restrictive than some people would like, at least they don't try to do anything deceptive. 27/09/2005 New digicamIn preparation for my upcoming trip, I got a new digital camera. My old digicam was pushing 5 years old, which, for a digital device, means it is starting to feel technologically out of date and gravitionally burdensome. And it used CompactFlash memory, which none of my other devices use.
My new little toy is a Casio EXILIM S500. This thing is really really, really, rediculously tiny for the number of quality megapixels it puts out. It is literally the size of a credit card, and not a whole lot thicker either. You may admire below my graceful hand modeling job and strategic thumb placement. I got a 2GB SD memory card to go with it, and to share with my nearly-as-tiny Pocket PC Phone which also takes SD memory. 07/09/2005 Rollable displaysIt seems like I've been hearing for nearly a decade that rollable displays are almost here. Now Phillips has finally built one. It's an e-book reader planned for consumer availability in late 2006. Phillips is also looking for other companies who want to directly license the technology to develop their own products.
Currently I guess the only suitable type of application would be for reading e-books/zines or maybe RSS feeds. Other kinds of media would be severely hindered by the meager 4-level grayscale and .67 Hz refresh rate. (Yes, that's less than one frame per second.) But I'm sure the technology will improve. 04/06/2005 The fax machine lives on......but it's becoming a mere peripheral to email. While dealing with all the paperwork and contracts involved in purchasing a house, I've been mildly fascinated by the way that the non-tech business world uses the fax machine these days. I've always thought of it as a relatively archaic technology, at least compared to the all the modern communication mechanisms made possible by the internet. But the fax machine is still relevant in spite of the internet, because it is still the easiest way to send around documents that are physically signed, often by multiple parties. Fortunately, it has adapted to the times. Apparently it is becoming very common now that faxes are not directly printed out, but are instead delivered to the email inbox of the recipient. This is true where I work, but then I even get telephone voice mail in my email inbox. I was slightly surprised to find my real estate agent and loan officer forwarding faxes to me by email too. Typically all the company's faxes are received by one computer with a fax modem, and then forwarded to the email address of the recipient. The only problem is that somebody has to have the job of manually looking up the email address for the name printed on the incoming fax. It's only a matter of time before this conversion to email starts to happen at the other end of the transmission. The sender, instead of feeding the document into a fax machine and dialing the hard-to-remember fax number, feeds the document into a scanner which loads it into their email program ready to address and send. Certainly this is possible today -- I returned some of my loan documents by scanning (on my multi-function printer-scanner-copier at home) and emailing. It hasn't caught on widely yet, probably because the scanner hardware is not ubiquitous and the software is generally not easy to use. But things are definitely moving in that direction. The standolone-fax-machine-hooked-up-to-the-phone-line's days are numbered. Of course, further into the future, things will all be paperless. Digital signatures will become standardized and legally binding. Billions of trees will breathe a collective sigh of oxygenated relief. It will happen in my lifetime, maybe by the time I'm signing documents to buy the tropical island I'm retiring to. On that day, my right hand will rest. |
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